Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 22.511734 27.012170 31.966773 37.797844 44.443193 51.751114 60.364872
2025-06-29 16.303387 22.294404 29.557709 38.885602 50.411552 64.047596 81.248831
2025-07-06 11.520501 17.630620 25.662275 36.726587 51.279935 69.462353 93.552412
2025-07-13 9.464471 15.880875 24.878678 37.964710 56.003218 79.455209 111.634970
2025-07-20 7.894708 14.424136 24.133470 38.945664 60.203406 88.783316 129.153490
2025-07-27 6.779978 13.397847 23.774582 40.286269 64.821832 98.760012 147.875007
2025-08-03 5.815976 12.405040 23.274446 41.265279 68.865739 108.036667 165.963323
2025-08-10 4.751457 11.010502 21.909357 40.704852 70.496169 113.884544 179.443652
2025-08-17 4.053970 10.137831 21.261400 41.151922 73.583326 121.872981 196.177346
2025-08-24 3.381684 9.164474 20.285884 40.916786 75.518242 128.173788 210.646325
2025-08-31 2.681143 7.962340 18.708538 39.458748 75.329700 131.190408 220.324527
2025-09-07 2.339774 7.479300 18.413042 40.189339 78.710433 139.746417 238.495604
2025-09-14 1.835381 6.513447 17.100581 39.093938 79.216487 144.264032 251.430564
2025-09-21 1.595738 6.161967 17.013377 40.301416 83.792504 155.525423 275.313079
2025-09-28 1.167806 5.133196 15.270725 38.085143 82.147656 156.617650 283.356613
2025-10-05 1.023561 4.899628 15.283902 39.359693 86.831427 168.264473 308.449942
2025-10-12 0.886120 4.637418 15.181043 40.369098 91.066054 179.313050 332.939596
2025-10-19 0.783935 4.459690 15.254839 41.748319 96.057677 191.820818 360.177828
2025-10-26 0.680441 4.234541 15.166505 42.755360 100.380187 203.330900 386.129522
2025-11-02 0.540184 3.790438 14.408632 42.178904 101.570303 209.431117 403.323887
2025-11-09 0.454031 3.534640 14.121981 42.638764 104.812139 219.229125 426.950732
2025-11-16 0.364980 3.209391 13.566485 42.396904 106.605019 226.491318 446.497674
2025-11-23 0.268192 2.765223 12.544974 40.896995 105.693585 228.808308 457.666238